We were riding down I-85 over Christmas week and my son, from the back seat, kept yelling "DADDY, LOOK! DADDY, LOOK!" as he held up his iPad. I couldn't exactly stare at the thing while driving, but glancing back I could see he had the settings app open. Not your typical six-year-old type of thing to play with on a car trip, right?"Buddy what are you doing in the settings?"Turns out he was trying to connect to one of our cell phone's hot spots. Except there was a plot twist."It says a bad word!!""What???""It says F--k's iPhone!!!""WHAT????"As it turns out, some clever little punk who was also riding down the highway -- instead of opting for something normal like "Will's iPhone X" or " Ben McLemore Jersey iPhone (2)" had decided to rename their phone "F--k's iPhone" which means that anyone who happened to be in proximity to them would see the swear word pop up if they went into their settings.I'm not even mad about it and I don't even know the point. Just wanted to tip my cup of egg nog to the little punk who caused my son to drop 400 f-bombs over the last 48 hours. Well played, F---. Well played.I will not be tipping my cap to Dave Richard. In a perfect world, you don't need a wild fourth-quarter comeback to take down a title. But sometimes it's fun to pull off a comeback. And that's exactly , as I'm trying to chase down Dave Richard for first place. A rough afternoon slate probably cost me a tie for first place, but things are snug enough where I can walk Dave down.Don't think he doesn't hear the footsteps. Dave is the and I'm . There are ghosts haunting him right now and he knows it.Of course, if you want to make up ground in a picks league, Week 16 is probably your last legitimate chance to make a huge move. Week 17 should feature tons of teams lacking motivation and it might be easy to figure out. Let's make this last mostly meaningful week count.Whatcan you make with confidence in Week 16? And whichcontender goes down hard?.NFL Week 16 PicksMinnesota (6-8) at New Orleans (10-4)Christmas, 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network)The aforementioned motivation is already kicking in and we've got a prime spot to take a team more interested in winning than the other. The will still try here, don't get me wrong. But do you think Minnesota is going to give 30 carries in this spot? Or save him for next year with his hefty contract on the books by feeding and (or maybe ) in a Christmas Day game that ultimately doesn't matter for the standings? I'm thinking the latter is a lot more likely. Additionally, the can clinch the NFC South on Christmas Day and take an extended holiday bye week. Come out sharp, get some good play out of and the Saints will feel very good about their Super Bowl chances heading into the Kenyon Martin Jr. Jersey final week of the regular season. Without Everson Griffen, the Vikings shouldn't be able to limit in the pa sing game. I think he gets them the lead and salts it away.The Pick: Saints 31, Vikings 21Best Bets: Alvin Kamara over receptions 4.5, Saints -7, Latavius Murray over carries/rush yardsTampa Bay (9-5) at Detroit (5-9)Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NFL Network)The yanked for late against the in a game that was a blowout. With Tampa capable of pummeling some bad teams, I wouldn't want to be backing the Lions in a spot where we could ultimately see backups play for a squad that is without the majority of its coaching staff due to COVID concerns. It's the Bucs or nothing here in this Saturday matinee.The Pick: 41, Lions 17Best Bets: N/ASan Francisco (5-9) at Arizona (8-6)Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Amazon)The po sible return of is interesting here, but I just don't know if C.J. Beathard and the have enough healthy bodies to take care of busine s against Arizona. San Francisco's the most perplexing team out there: one minute they're throttling someone, the next minute they're losing to the frigging and . This defense is short-handed and has struggled with mobile QBs the last few years. is fully healthy and weaponized now based on the last two weeks. I would expect him to have a big game.The Pick: 24, 49ers 17Best Bets: Kyler Murray over rush yardsMiami (9-5) at Las Vegas (7-7)Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network)The Impromptu Hawaii Bowl -- and become the first pair of Samoan quarterbacks to square off -- should feature a ton of points. Las Vegas can score with or without and Mariota appeared willing to really make this offense vertical during his fill in for Carr last Thursday. The offense is a little more sluggish, but the will make anyone look good, and the po sible return of and would help a ton. I actually think Mariota will surprise a lot of people here and pull off an upset.The Pick: Raiders 31, Dolphins 28Best Bets: Raiders +3Chicago (7-7) at Jacksonville (1-13)1 p.m. ET (CBS)Are the BACK IN THE PLAYOFF HUNT??? If Chicago wins out, it could steal a bid to the postseason. Even if that doesn't happen, a 9-7 season would almost guarantee Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace keeping their jobs. You can't fire Nagy if he starts his career 12-4, 8-8, 9-7. You just can't. And if Nagy and Pace stick around, you know what's happening? A extension, that's what. Root for it, because it would be amazing. I'd expect another big game from Mitsubishi Mitch and I would be extremely interested in seeing where Vegas puts the rushing prop this week. He's coming on like gangbusters the last few weeks and the Jags defense is horrific.The Pick: Bears 31, 24Best Bets: David Montgomery over rush yards (up to 95)Cleveland (10-4) at N.Y. (1-13)1 p.m. ET (CBS)We really should not be gifting this win to the . They have a chance to steal the division, but they can't do it without beating the Jets. So I'll be interested to see how Cleveland's offense comes out early. Are they looking ahead? Or will Baker Mayfield and Co. understand they need to throttle another bad team to set up a po sible Week 17 matchup. I think they show up and annihilate the Jets. No Quinnen Wiliams is a big problem for New York's rush defense and this is a team that loves to run. and should have a field day and I would anticipate lots of early play-action from Baker to get a lead. The Jets can't keep up in terms of scoring.The Pick: Browns 31, Jets 10Best Bets: Nick Chubb over rush yardsCincinnati (3-10-1) Jerian Grant Jersey at Houston (4-10)1 p.m. ET (Fox)Hard to believe it, but we've got a big-time letdown spot for the . They just won their Super Bowl with a Monday night victory over the and the consensus is Zac Taylor saved his job for 2021 with the W. They're going to stumble into this matchup against Houston a little hungover and right now the offense and is a lot more explosive than the Steelers and Big Ben. Houston can't stop anyone, so the Bengals should get some points, but the Texans will win this one by double digits.The Pick: Texans 34, Bengals 21Best Bets: Texans -8Atlanta (4-10) at Kansas City (13-1)1 p.m. ET (Fox)Boy the Falcons can't catch a break, can they? They blew a ma sive lead against Tom Brady (the jokes write themselves) and then roll right into a road matchup against and the . I don't think Atlanta is going to put up much of a fight in this one, at least in terms of actually winning the game, but I do think the Chiefs have played too many close games to take them as a double digit favorite. They're in cruise control for the No. 1 overall seed and I think Andy Reid will win without being too aggre sive here.The Pick: Chiefs 24, Falcons 21Best Bets: N/AIndianapolis (10-4) at Pittsburgh (11-3)1 p.m. ET (CBS)This game feels a little too obvious -- the are just a lot better than the Steelers right now. Pittsburgh needs to win this game or else things can go sideways and they could lose the division to the Browns in Week 17. But some times, as a great philosopher once told me, you just need to realize that a line is just a line. The Colts are the better team right now. I don't see a situation where the Steelers snap out of their funk and win this game. They can't run the ball Ralph Sampson Jersey and their short-pa sing game doesn't bode well against the Colts zone defense. Indy doesn't blow teams out, so that's concerning. But they should handle Pittsburgh here.The Pick: Colts 24, Steelers 17Best Bets: Colts -1.5N.Y. (5-9) at Baltimore (9-5)1 p.m. ET (Fox)No one has noticed but is kind of back. He's not operating at full MVP form quite yet but he's running like crazy and starting to put up big numbers again. We saw him do this during the early portion of 2019 and it resulted in mammoth numbers -- the can't slow down like they did last year with a playoff berth on the line. They could mi s the playoffs at 11-5. 11 wins and no playoffs! In other words, you have to bank on Baltimore running up the score here and Lamar doing a ton. Take the over on his rushing yards and the Ravens laying a huge number.The Pick: Ravens 34, Giants 10Best Bets: Ravens -11, Lamar Jackson over rushing yards (anything over 75)Carolina (4-10) at Washington (6-8)4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)This feels pretty obvious to me. One team has a quarterback who left their Week 14 LOSS and either went to a strip club or ended up hanging out with strippers despite the fact that 1) we're in the middle of a pandemic, 2) he's the only healthy quarterback on the roster, 3) the team is leading the division and 4) his coach just beat cancer. The other does, um, not have that happening. What is thinking???? I've done some seriously irresponsible things in my life but this is literally the most irresponsible thing I've ever heard of anyone doing. The can't relyy on this guy. Hammer the .The Pick: Panthers 24, Washington 21Best Bets: Panthers +2.5Denver (5-9) at L.A. (5-9)4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)There's a pretty simple calculus here -- the Chargers are favored by more than a field goal. When that's the case, you can't take the Chargers. They don't beat anyone by more than one score or beat anyone in any kind of fashion that would be described as dominant. You have to take the dog with the points in this spot. I don't hate the over here either, though. The Chargers could be up 31-10 in the fourth quarter and could throw three late touchdowns that are meaningle s. Kind of here for a revenge game too, although you shouldn't sleep on the revenge game either.The Pick: 30, Chargers 28Best Bets: N/APhiladelphia (4-9-1) at Dallas (5-9)4:25 p.m. ET (Fox) is dealing right now. Don't fade him. And while you're at it, take the (7-1 odds) to win the division. If the WFT's lose their game and the Eagles win, you're sitting on a major arb situation with the odds at 7-1. I've got a little concern about the Cowboys kind of finding something, but if plays, the Eagles are in a smash spot.The Pick: Eagles 34, Cowboys 28Best Bets: OverL.A.(9-5) at Seattle (10-4)4:25 p.m. ET (Fox) is a huge concern for this team, but the Los Angeles defense is good enough to slow down D.K. Metcalf and force to deal with too often for his liking. Take the Rams, take the under and make sure to jump on an Chris Paul Jersey aggre sively high Metcalf yardage total.The Pick: Rams 21, 17Best Bets: Rams +1.5, D.K. Metcalf under yardsTenne see (10-4) at Green Bay (11-3)8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)Run fest going here. will hit his over in terms of rush yards. So will Derrick Henry. We're getting to 60 points in the snow on Sunday night. It's gonna be a blast. I think the win, but the Titans will keep it very, very close. A.J. Brown definitely scores a G.A.M.T. (Grown A s Man Touchdown).The Pick: Packers 41, Titans 38Best Bets: Over, AJ Brown anytime TD, over rush yards, Aaron Jones rush yardsBuffalo (11-3) at New England (6-8)8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)What a freaking ma sive spot for the here. They won the division already, but beating the here would send a me sage. I think they do it, but I'm not sure they do it by a full touchdown. Bill Belichick has done a good job defending over the last few years and I think he can do it here. Good buy low/sell high spot.The Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 28Best Bets: N/A